Key Takeaways
• Tough Start: Declines in U.S. gross domestic product and promo products sales defined the early months of 2025 from a macroeconomic and merch industry perspective.
• Doldrums: Americans’ outlook on the economy is at its lowest level in nearly 14 years. Promo confidence was at a four-year low point.
Numbers can tell a tale. And the early-year statistics paint a grim picture for 2025 to date. Both actual new tariffs from President Donald Trump and uncertainty surrounding the direction the administration is headed with import duties were a factor in weighing down economic activity in the promotional products industry and U.S. marketplace more broadly in the opening months of the year. Other variables, like harsh winter weather and Los Angeles wildfires, may have served to depress economic activity too, analysts say. Here’s a look at notable numbers.
-3.6%
The decline in promotional products distributors’ collective sales in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter the prior year. (ASI Research)
-4.8%
The drop in promotional products suppliers’ sales in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. (ASI Research)
87
The reading on the Counselor Confidence Index in the first quarter of 2025. That’s the lowest level since it sat at 86 in the first quarter of 2021. The index, whose baseline reading is 100, has a 24-year history of measuring distributor financial health and business optimism. (ASI Research)
456,000
The number of new jobs the U.S. economy added in the first quarter of 2025, down from 628,000 in the final quarter of 2024 (The Wall Street Journal)
62,000
Number of jobs the U.S. private sector added in April, down from 147,000 in March and the smallest gain since July 2024. (ADP)
44.7
The April reading of a measure that tracks new export orders in China. The tally was the lowest since December 2022. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The poor performance suggests U.S. tariffs have reduced ordering from Chinese factories. (China’s National Bureau of Statistics)
49
The April score of China’s official purchasing manager’s index for the manufacturing sector. The index gauges manufacturing activity. The below-50 reading indicates contraction. It was the weakest showing since December 2023. (China’s National Bureau of Labor Statistics)
