Key Takeaways
• Tariffs have caused major disruptions for many companies in the promo industry, leading to unpredictable pricing, supply chain instability and slower sales as companies struggle to quote and fulfill orders amid constant rate changes.
• Still, despite economic uncertainty, many promo firms have shown resilience, adapting operations and maintaining growth through proactive client engagement and strategic production shifts.
• The expiration of the U.S.-China trade deal on August 12 is a critical moment; its outcome will heavily influence pricing and margins and is poised to affect overall industry performance for the rest of the year.
On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a deluge of sweeping tariffs on countries around the globe, followed shortly after by placing a massive 145% levy on China, which has long been promo’s primary source of imported product.
That rate has since come down, but the tariff news has continued in an ever-evolving tide. Last week, on Aug. 7, the latest slew of “reciprocal” tariffs took effect – including a surprise 50% levy on India, among the highest of the U.S. charges. President Trump’s latest move in the trade war pumped the United States’ net effective average tariff rate to above 17%, the highest it’s been since the Great Depression.
During the four months in between those two dates, the promo industry has weathered a roller coaster of changing tariff rates, price increases and, on average, slumped industry sales in the first and second quarter. Quoting orders has proved complicated, as constantly shifting tariff rates can skyrocket item prices without warning at any point in the order and fulfillment process.
And yet, in some ways, promo proved as resilient as always. April and May were overwhelmingly slow months as consumers blanched from the news cycle, but roughly a third of companies were still up in Q2 despite an overall industry decline. Tariffs are still top of mind for most promo firms, but the percentage reporting that they’re “very concerned” has been on a steady decline since its peak in April. And optimism persists about the end of the year – as measured analytically by the Counselor Confidence Index but also anecdotally at events like ASI Show Chicago.
Aug. 7 was a key date as the reciprocal tariffs take effect, but so is another impending date – Aug. 12, when the United States’ current trade deal with China is set to expire. The deal set tariffs on Chinese goods at 55% for 90 days – 25% from tariffs that existed before President Trump’s second term, a 20% “fentanyl tariff” and the 10% base tariff rate now being applied to goods entering the country.
As promo pros look to the rest of 2025, how subsequent trade deal negotiations play out may be a major determiner of the promo industry’s full-year sales outlooks and (in particular) profit margins.
With all that in mind, ASI Media asked 14 industry professionals to rate their level of concern regarding the current promo products tariff situation.
Read this full story on ASI Central.
