Key Takeaways
• On the Rise: U.S. private-sector economic activity in November expanded at its fastest rate since April 2022.
• Confidence Increase: Optimism about future output reached its highest level in two-and-a-half years.
• Caveat: The services sector grew, but manufacturing contracted for the fifth month. Still, manufacturers’ confidence rose sharply, suggesting potential better days ahead.
Business has been bustling in November, a new survey asserts.
This month, private-sector economic activity in the United States has expanded at its fastest rate since April 2022, according to the S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI.
November’s Flash PMI survey data, which accounts for activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, registered 55.3, an increase from 54.1 in October. The performance outpaced the predictions of economists, which had forecast a slight uptick to 54.3.
Regarding future sentiment, S&P’s findings showed optimism about output in the coming year recovering for a second successive month in November, reaching its highest level since May 2022.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said economic output was gaining steam as private-sector leaders looked to 2025.
“The business mood has brightened in November, with confidence about the year ahead hitting a two-and-a-half-year high,” Williamson said. “The prospect of lower interest rates and a more pro-business approach from the incoming [presidential] administration has fueled greater optimism, in turn helping drive output and order book inflows higher in November.”
The financial performance of the print and promotional products industries is impacted, positively or negatively, by the general direction of the broader economy. It can also be influenced by business leaders’ perception of economic conditions – how confident or uncertain they feel. As such, increased output and confidence among business leaders could potentially bode well for promo and print.
Still, S&P’s findings come with some caveats.
Output growth, for instance, was driven completely by the services sector. The manufacturing industry again contracted. It was the fifth consecutive month of contraction for the goods-producing sector.
Nonetheless, the rate of deterioration was the slowest since July, suggesting improvements could be around the corner, analysts said. Furthermore, manufacturing sector optimism rose to its highest level in two-and-a-half years.
There was also notable news on inflation and Q4 as a whole, according to researchers.
“The rise in the headline flash PMI indicates that economic growth is accelerating in the fourth quarter, while at the same time inflationary pressures are cooling,” Williamson said. “The survey’s price gauge covering goods and services signaled only a marginal increase in prices in November, pointing to consumer inflation running well below the Fed’s 2% target.”
Promotional products distributors have seen their collective financial performance progressively rise through the first three quarters of the year.
After industry distributors’ sales declined year over year in Q1, they rose 1.3% in Q2 and then accelerated 4.2% in Q3, the greatest rate of annual-basis quarterly growth in over a year, according to the Distributor Quarterly Sales Survey from ASI Research. The jury remains out on Q4, but there are signs the promo industry could be on track to break another annual sales record.
