Key Takeaways
• A new Court of International Trade ruling indicates that importers are eligible for tariff refunds following the Supreme Court’s decision striking down several Trump-era tariffs.
• While the ruling strengthens the case for refunds, the process remains unclear, and the government is expected to appeal or seek delays.
• Many promo industry suppliers and distributors doubt whether pursuing refunds is worth the heavy administrative burden, but estimates suggest the government could owe as much as $175 billion in total.
Tariff refunds are looking increasingly likely.
The Court of International Trade (CIT), a federal court with jurisdiction of customs and international trade laws, this week ruled that “all importers of record” are entitled to benefit from the Supreme Court’s recent ruling that struck down many of President Trump’s 2025 tariffs.
Last month, the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s baseline reciprocal tariffs and other “trafficked” tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China unconstitutional under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
“The nature of the ruling indicates that the government should refund tariffs that importers paid, but that’s where things get fuzzy because the Supreme Court didn’t say anything about refunds,” Kevin Williams, an attorney and member of the International Trade Group at law firm Clark Hill, told ASI Media last week. He added that decisions on refunds don’t typically fall under the Supreme Court’s jurisdiction. Instead, they must go through the CIT.
While the CIT ruling offers some additional clarity on the likelihood of tariff refunds, questions remain about what exactly this process will look like and how long it will take.
Trade lawyer Ryan Majerus, a partner at King & Spalding and a former U.S. trade official, expects the government to appeal the CIT decision or “seek a stay to buy more time for U.S. Customs to comply,” AP News reported.
When it comes to tariff refunds, many suppliers and distributors across promo have expressed doubt about whether the time and effort required is actually worth the return.
“I think [the refund process] is going to be a mess, and there are billions of dollars on the line,” Daniel Oas, CEO of High Caliber Line (asi/43442), told ASI Media last week. “If we’re able to get the refund, we will, but it’s a whole lot of work.”
CJ Schmidt, president of Counselor Top 40 supplier Hit Promotional Products (asi/61125) and a Counselor 50 member, added that he doesn’t believe it’s worth the time or energy.
According to the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Budget Model, the federal government could owe up to $175 billion in tariff refunds. U.S. Customs collected more than $265 billion in total tariffs in 2025.
